CHILDREN CHRONIC B AND C HEPATITIS MORBIDITY DYNAMICS IN SAMARA REGION

Churbakova Ol'ga Vladimirovna, Candidate medical sciences, sub-department of faculty pediatrics, Samara State Medical University (89 Chapaevskay street, Samara, Russia), o_churbakova@mail.ru
Pechkurov Dmitriy Vladimirovich, Doctor of medical sciences, professor, head of sub-department of children diseases, Samara State Medical University (89 Chapaevskay street, Samara, Russia), o_churbakova@mail.ru

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Background. The article aims at analysing the tendencies of children chronic B and C hepatitis morbidity in long-term dynamics in Samara region, receiving the incidence forecast in Samara region for the next years.
Materials and methods. In the analysis of the incidence the authors used the linear regression model. Determination of the main trends of morbidity of chronic viral B and C hepatitis in Samara region (trend) over the 10 years period was achieved with the help of analytic alignment of the original dynamic curve using linear approximation type. When predicting the incidence the researchers used the extrapolation method.
Results. The decline of the incidence of children chronic viral B hepatitis in Samara region began in 2003 and continues to this day. The authors point out the continuing increase of the incidence of childlren chronic C hepatitis. According to the forecast obtained the study, the incidence of children chronic C hepatitis is probable to grow, as well as the incidence of chronic B hepatitis.
Conclusions. The incidence rates of population with chronic viral hepatitis are important for the evaluation of the epidemiological situation in the country as well as in a separate region. One of the positive aspects of reducing the incidence of viral hepatitis - active vaccination against hepatitis B. Further prerequisites of C hepatitis incidence increase relate to the lack of the vaccine and to the clinical course characteristics.

disease, chronic viral hepatitis, children, forecast.

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